The One Creativity Tool To Manage Uncertainty in the Business


An earlier success would create a bias in mind in the form of overconfidence. The first step in solving a problem is to remove the overconfidence, keep a beginner’s mind every time, look at the problem from different perspectives — from the perspective of a shop floor employee, a retailer, a customer, a user, an engineer. The research shows that to solve a problem, to predict the solution’s future implications, a person’s overconfidence makes him unconsciously draw conclusions and make decisions based on the information available close to him. A biased mind would be blind to many of the subtle hints in the environment, people. In this case, he would be blind to future surprises, which were beyond his existing source of knowledge.

WHAT IF as a Creativity Technique

‘What If’ forces your mind out of logical reasoning — it is a generative creativity technique. By asking ‘What If’ questions, we can provoke a fictional narrative for the future. It helps us to explore a spectrum of possibilities and prepare for the worst possible scenarios.

WHAT IF in Business

Chip and Dan Heath in their “Decisive” book talk about a stock investor “Penstock”. One of the striking aspects of Penstock is his humility in his predictive abilities (Be Humble).


‘What If’ scenario helps you to create a concrete future scenario and work backwards to the present — It forces us to find explanations why the event might happen.


Though we cannot minimise bad outcomes, ‘What If’ scenarios help people to prepare for surprises, understand the early signs of failure and cope better when they encounter inevitable future difficulties. Some of ‘What If’ scenarios may help in mitigating risk, introduce, change marketing activities, business strategies, product features.



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